In recent years, Germany has witnessed a significant political shift: the growing popularity of the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD)—a right-wing party once dismissed as fringe but now gaining serious traction, especially in the eastern states. Once taboo, the AfD is increasingly treated as a viable political force. Depending on whom you ask, this trend is either a long-overdue correction or a worrisome warning light.
So what’s driving the AfD’s surge? Why is it resonating in places like Saxony, Thuringia, and Brandenburg? And what are the possible consequences—for better or worse—of a rising right-wing tide in one of Europe’s most influential democracies?
Let’s explore both sides of the argument.
The Rise of the AfD: By the Numbers
Founded in 2013 as an anti-Euro, fiscally conservative party, the AfD quickly rebranded into a platform centered around anti-immigration, anti-Islam, and nationalist messaging, especially after the 2015 refugee crisis. Since then, it has established a solid voter base in Eastern Germany, often polling as the second- or even first-place party in certain regional elections.
As of 2024, national support hovers around 20 to 25%, with up to 35% or more in eastern states—a stark contrast to its early days as a political outsider.
Why Some See the AfD’s Rise as a Good Thing
- A Voice for the Voiceless
Many AfD supporters argue the party gives a platform to ordinary Germans ignored by traditional parties—especially in the East, where economic stagnation, job loss, and population decline have been longstanding issues since reunification.
“We are not extremists,” say many supporters, “we’re just tired of being left behind.”
- A Challenge to Globalist Overreach
AfD voters often bristle at what they perceive as undemocratic EU interference, unchecked globalization, and international pressure to accept policies they feel don’t reflect German interests.
The party’s stance: Germany should put Germany first, especially in matters of trade, law, and border control.
- Tougher Immigration Stance
Following the 2015 refugee influx, many Germans—especially in rural or culturally homogeneous areas—felt overwhelmed by the speed and scale of immigration. The AfD promises tightened asylum laws, border protection, and a renewed emphasis on “German identity.”
For some, that’s not xenophobic—it’s self-preservation.
- Pushback Against Radical Islam
The party has been vocal against what it calls the “Islamization of Germany,” criticizing everything from halal meals in schools to mosque construction as well as the rise in grooming rape gangs. While this messaging is controversial, it appeals to those who see Islam not as a religion but as an ideological threat to Western values.
Why the AfD’s Popularity Could Be Dangerous
- Normalizing Extremism
Parts of the AfD have been monitored by Germany’s domestic intelligence agency for alleged ties to far-right extremism. Though the party has officially distanced itself from neo-Nazi imagery, critics argue that white nationalism, racism, and antisemitism often lurk just beneath the surface.
Once fringe ideas become vote-getters, it becomes harder to draw the line.
- Immigration Scapegoating
While immigration brings challenges, it also brings labor, cultural diversity, and long-term demographic sustainability in an aging nation. By framing migrants—especially Muslim ones—as the root of social ills, the AfD risks fueling division, discrimination, and violence.
Already, Germany has seen a rise in hate crimes against foreigners and refugees. On the other side, violent crime by immigrants has increased dramatically.
- Religious Tension
Germany is home to over 5 million Muslims, many of whom are fully integrated citizens. AfD rhetoric can make them feel unwelcome, creating religious polarization and stoking Islamophobia, especially in areas where Muslims are already a minority.
This fractures social trust and risks creating ghettos of resentment—on both sides.
- East vs. West Divide
The AfD’s popularity in East Germany reignites old wounds from reunification. The former East (DDR) still faces economic disparity and fewer opportunities, and the rise of nationalism there has become both a political symptom and a social warning.
If this division deepens, it could reignite a cultural split within the country—East vs. West all over again.
Is the AfD a Symptom or a Solution?
It’s important to recognize the nuance: not all AfD supporters are extremists, and not all immigration policies are flawless. But the rising popularity of a party that questions democratic values, international cooperation, and multiculturalism—especially one already under surveillance—should not be taken lightly.
Is the AfD a democratic correction? A last gasp of nationalism? Or a prelude to something darker?
Democracy at a Crossroads
The AfD’s ascent may be part protest, part panic, and part populism—but it is not accidental. Something has fractured in the relationship between citizens and their institutions. Whether Germany strengthens that bond or watches it splinter may depend not only on which party wins—but on who’s willing to listen, adapt, and lead. Mistakes were made by previous administrations. Mistakes that were unnecessary and even questionable from the argument or angle of “The Great Replacement”. Can Germany become Germany again?
History is watching. Again.
